The United States’ suspension of a key green-card sponsorship process at eight technology companies has raised concerns over the future of skilled-worker mobility. The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) has urged India’s IT industry to prepare for the possibility of restrictions extending to hiring and outsourcing, while distinguishing that warning from the immediate scope of the action. Announced on October 8, the suspension affects Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), Infosys, Wipro, HCLTech, Microsoft, Adobe, Cognizant and Capgemini. It blocks new and pending applications under the Permanent Labour Certification Programme, commonly known as PERM, a route used for employer-sponsored permanent residency. What the Green-Card Freeze Means The immediate concern is uncertainty for employees pursuing permanent residency through the affected employers. Companies may also need to reassess longer-term staffing plans in the United States. However, GTRI said the PERM suspension does not itself prevent H-1B applications under existing rules or cancel workers’ current H-1B status. The report’s warning about wider restrictions is an assessment of potential policy risks, rather than an announcement of a new H-1B hiring ban. This distinction matters for understanding the impact: a disruption to permanent-residency sponsorship does not automatically mean an immediate halt to ongoing IT projects. Why GTRI Sees a Risk for Indian IT GTRI highlighted the industry’s substantial exposure to the American market. According to figures cited in its report, the US accounted for $119.7 billion, or 54.1 per cent, of India’s $221.4 billion in software and IT-enabled services exports during FY2025–26. That dependence makes changes in US immigration and employment policy significant for Indian technology businesses. GTRI urged companies to prepare for possible measures affecting H-1B hiring, movement of skilled professionals and outsourcing. These remain potential risks identified by the think tank, with the present action focused on PERM sponsorship. Delivery From India Could Cushion the Impact The report said India’s delivery model could limit the immediate disruption. Globally, 91.7 per cent of software and IT-enabled services exports were delivered from India, while 8.3 per cent came through professionals working at overseas client locations. Applying those worldwide proportions to US exports, GTRI estimated that approximately $109.8 billion in services was delivered from India and $9.9 billion through on-site work. It clarified that these estimates use global delivery shares rather than US-specific data. The figures suggest that much of the industry’s work can continue without employees being based at American client locations. Nevertheless, uncertainty over residency could complicate workforce planning and employee retention. Diversification, Local Hiring and GCC Opportunities GTRI recommended expanding into additional export markets, strengthening service delivery from India and increasing local hiring in the US where required. It also called for greater investment in artificial intelligence and higher-value technology services. The report identified a possible opportunity for India’s Global Capability Centres (GCCs). Multinational companies could expand engineering work and specialised teams in India if overseas staffing becomes more difficult, potentially supporting employment and technology development. For Indian IT companies, the immediate challenge is to manage residency-related uncertainty while maintaining client delivery. GTRI’s broader message is to build resilience against sudden policy changes through a wider customer base, stronger domestic delivery capabilities and more specialised services.

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